Tea Industry of Assam and India: Statistical Analysis and Its FutureTrends

Abstract

Tea is a national drink of India and Indian people consume 70% of country’s produced tea which is nearly 9.01 Lakh tones. Govt. of India earned 12.6 Billion USD from Tea industry in 2022 and India had exported 195.5 Million kgs tea in the year 2021. India had recorded the highest ever production of tea in 2017-18 by producing 1,325.05 Million kgs. Assam and Darjeeling Tea are world famous for its unique behaviour and ethnicities. Assam Orthodox Tea has received a tag mark of Geographical Indication (GI). There are more than 850 tea estates and more than 2,500 tea gardens in Assam covering thousands of acres of land of the state primarily in upper Assam. India is also the largest consumer of black tea and consumes 18% of the total World tea consumption. India is 2^nd largest tea producer and Assam accounts for 1/6^th of the tea produced in the world and 52% in the country. In this paper, a comparative analysis of tea production in Assam and India is presented along with forecasting of produced tea in the country. To forecast yield production, area and average yield of tea in Assam and India, the ARIMA model is used. Descriptive statistical measures are taken to show differences among Assam and India. ADF test is used here to check the stationarity of the time series data. AIC, BIC and MAPE values are also used to obtain the optimal ARIMA model.