Climate Variability And Dengue Outbreaks In Imphal Valley, Northeast India

Abstract

Dengue fever has emerged as a significant public health concern in Northeast India, particularly in the Imphal Valley, where rapid urbanization, changing land use patterns and conducive climate have created favorable conditions for mosquito proliferation. This study investigates the relationship between climate variability and dengue incidence during the period 2020-2022. Climatic variables, including monthly temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, were collected from meteorological records and analyzed in conjunction with reported dengue cases obtained from the State Health Directorate. The analysis revealed a distinct seasonal pattern, with case numbers increasing sharply from late summer through the post-monsoon months, coinciding with peaks in rainfall and ambient humidity. A strong positive correlation was observed between precipitation levels and dengue incidence, suggesting that heavy rainfall contributes to the creation of breeding habitats for Aedes mosquitoes, while warm, moist conditions accelerate vector development and viral transmission. Although temperature fluctuations showed a moderate association with case trends, precipitation and humidity emerged as the most influential climatic drivers. These findings underscore the critical role of climate variability in shaping the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in the Imphal Valley. They point to the necessity of integrating climate-sensitive approaches into vector control, surveillance, and public health preparedness. Timely interventions, such as pre-monsoon source reduction, community awareness and enhanced entomological monitoring, can help mitigate the risk of large-scale outbreaks. Incorporating climate-based early warning systems into dengue management strategies would further strengthen the region’s capacity to respond effectively to future climate-driven health challenges.